Sensationalism, Scare Mongering and the Nanny State

The article screams that the Japanese government has plans for evacuating 10 million people from Tokyo because of Fukushima... Yeah, right! If it were so bad, then why only 10 million? There's are at least 35 million people in Tokyo.

There is still way too much sensationalism and frankly speaking piss poor writing going on about Fukushima. I found one of the worst examples I've seen in a long time today. This article's title is suitable for a gossip weekly magazine on some US supermarket check out counter along with the Hillary Clinton Adopts Alien Baby story. The title lays bare to the low quality of writing held within: It's Not Over: Government Plans for the Worst: Forced Evacuation of Tokyo. The article goes on stating that the nuclear problem is out of control, cannot be controlled and the Japanese government has plans to evacuate ten million people from Tokyo.


Laughable.


Folks, the situation in Fukushima is bad enough as it is without some fools scare mongering. Allow me to go through this with you and point out some of the gross absurdities within. The article from SHTF will be italicized and highlighted in yellow. My comments will be added.


It's Not Over: Government lans for the Worst: Forced Evacuation of Tokyo 

While it has for the most part disappeared from mainstream view, the Fukushima nuclear disaster is anything but over. In fact, the situation in Japan has gone from bad to worse.

Bottom line: There is no way to contain the radiation.


Well, if saying that "There's no way to contain the radiation" isn't a give away for more sensationalism to come then I think I need some rabies shot before I go on reading further. As I said, at the plants in Fukushima, things aren't all roses and in many cases pretty bad especially with leakages that, by the way, have been reported to have been plugged (so maybe they can be contained?) Also, judging from the background radiation levels in Shinjuku, Tokyo measured daily, those levels are one half of what they were one year ago.

Even more alarming is that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and other agencies have warned that the nuclear storage pools (the containment units that are being used to cool the nuclear fuel) have been damaged and may collapse under their own weight.


"May" collapse? Well, I may win the year-end lottery too!

Such an event would cause widespread nuclear fallout throughout the region and force the government to evacuate the nearly 10 million residents of Tokyo and surrounding areas, a scenario which government emergency planners are now taking into serious consideration.


This paragraph is a dead giveaway that the writer doesn't have a clue as to what he is talking about. Tokyo constitutes over 51% of Japan's entire GDP. There are over 35 million homes in the Tokyo metropolitan area alone. Two questions for this writer: Where in the world did he come up with this incorrect information of "10 million residents of Tokyo"? and even if this were correct, where, pray tell would these people be sent? He goes on:

Leading Japanese newspaper The Mainichi Daily News reports:

One of the biggest issues that we face is the possibility that the spent nuclear fuel pool of the No. 4 reactor at the stricken Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant will collapse. This is something that experts from both within and outside Japan have pointed out since the massive quake struck. TEPCO, meanwhile, says that the situation is under control. However, not only independent experts, but also sources within the government say that it’s a grave concern.

The storage pool in the No. 4 reactor building has a total of 1,535 fuel rods, or 460 tons of nuclear fuel, in it. The 7-story building itself has suffered great damage, with the storage pool barely intact on the building’s third and fourth floors. The roof has been blown away. If the storage pool breaks and runs dry, the nuclear fuel inside will overheat and explode, causing a massive amount of radioactive substances to spread over a wide area. Both the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and French nuclear energy company Areva have warned about this risk.


Lots of "ifs" and "the possibility" of disaster...

A report released in February by the Independent Investigation Commission on the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident stated that the storage pool of the plant’s No. 4 reactor has clearly been shown to be “the weakest link” in the parallel, chain-reaction crises of the nuclear disaster. The worse-case scenario drawn up by the government includes not only the collapse of the No. 4 reactor pool, but the disintegration of spent fuel rods from all the plant’s other reactors. If this were to happen, residents in the Tokyo metropolitan area would be forced to evacuate. (emphasis mine)

This hits the crux of the problem. That last two sentences that I highlighted. They speak of the worst case scenario. This is the worst-case scenario drawn up by the government. 

I looked for the link to the original article and it doesn't exist. That's OK, though I found a cache. Then I tracked back to the original Japanese language transcripts and broadcasts.

Admittedly, they say the same thing as this sensationalist articles says, yet in a slightly different vein. The jist of the original Japanese is "If there is another huge earthquake, then the pools might collapse." They are indeed speaking of worst-case scenarios. Nowhere in the original articles do any of the experts consulted claim that this will happen. Everyone says "if"... 

Well, if I win the lottery too... If we have another 9.0 earthquake...

As far as evacuation claims, I could not find any information to that effect at all. Though I would consider that, even in the USA, there are evacuation plans for all sorts of scenarios... For example; If the Russians fire nuclear missiles; if there is a nuclear attack on a US city; if terrorists poison the water supply, etc., etc.... Gosh! There's goes that pesky "if" again.

It's all a part and parcel of the culture of fear that is pedaled by the government and media nowadays as news. 

This article was full of "what ifs". But, here's some facts:

144 workers and employees died at Chernobyl within 6 months of the event due to radiation. More than one year after Fukushima two guys dead from the tsunami, one guy dead from a heart attack, none from radiation.

As I have pointed out, the 10 million Tokyo residents number doesn't add up no matter how you slice it... Think about it.... Sure government wonks probably have plan for something like this (they also had a plan to blow a hole in the side of the nuclear reactors up with US military explosives in order to cool them down but Dr. Strangelove was out voted)... Doesn't the government sit around and make plans and committees to think up ways to screw up and spend money?.... 

This sensationalist article is full of conjecture and scare mongering... I'll bet it works good for selling products.


In fact, in some of the original article links, there are links to a daytime women's talk show where an "expert" appeared. Here's the video. Have a Japanese watch it with you and explain what is said: 

This is a morning women's talk and gossip news show on TV Asahi. For your information, few people take TV Asahi as a serious news station as Asahi TV is owned by Asahi Newspaper. Asahi newspaper is traditionally a leftist and pro-socialist publication - it has been that way for 100 years and supports the socialist parties and even did so with communist parties in the past. 

As with American morning TV talk shows such as Good Morning America and the like (we have them in Japan too - witness the above), then if you wish to trust this sort of women's gossip and news program as a news source, then you must have believed that Saddam Hussein had nuclear weapons so the USA had to invade, a man in a cave organized 9/11, America the brave went into Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan and the rest of the middle east to bring those folks democracy and freedom.... Sure.

I like the SHTF reports (well sometimes) but they don't do sensationalism from Japan well - especially since they don't speak the language so they can't verify their sources and they obviously are not knowledgeable in the history of media in this country and why some publications and news services have a leftist or rightist slant. 


But, if you check the SHTF website you see that they sell survival gear and have been selling and promoting the end of the world since 2007. So well have they done this that they've predicted 11 out of the last 1 disasters.


Far be it from me to tell you not to be prepared or get ready for a financial calamity or natural disaster... But business can't be so bad for SHTF that they need to stoop to this level of reporting could it?


Sensationalism sure sells stuff... its track record on reporting the truth is pretty shockingly bad though.

Wind Directions in Japan for the Geographically Impaired

Too many clueless people. Another person, who knows nothing about Japan, or its weather or geography, takes issue with the facts I wrote in a previous blog post about the prevailing winds in Japan ALWAYS blowing from south or east from April to December and then from the north east in winter. Regardless of season, generally speaking, winds blow radiation (if there is any) away from Fukushima towards the ocean. They do not blow from Fukushima towards Tokyo. That's an impossibility. Regardless of what quacks like Arnie Gundersen say.

LENA HORNE - STORMY WEATHER

Laughingly, a commenter named, "S" (in a lame attempt at wit) writes:

BTW, you piqued my curiosity, so I just took a quick look at the forecast for Fukushima, here: http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Fukushima/forecasts/latest It shows today's wind blowing SSW all day --i.e., straight towards Tokyo. You might want to call them, and explain that this is 'impossible.' Have a nice weekend.

"Have a nice weekend?" How cute. I will, thank you. And I will be laughing at you in a few minutes. 

Thanks S. I don't think I need to call the weather-forecast people. This is not a forecasting problem. Their forecast for Fukushima is most probably correct. Fukushima is not a big place. Is, say, the weather report for Ventura California  consistent with the weather in Tijuana Mexico? Probably not. They might be if it were all flat lands, but, alas, for you and your weak argument, there are a bunch of huge rocks called, "mountains" in the way.

The nuclear power plants in Fukushima are on the ocean side, opposite of Tokyo, of those high mountain ranges. Winds often blow onshore from the ocean. This is a geography question and how geography influences weather. 

Some people need to open up a relief map of Japan and see the terrain and just how far away Tokyo is from Fukushima is... And, no, it's not the 1/2 inch you see on that map in front of your face. I guess some people's reading and comprehension abilities are lacking as I simply pointed out in my post, about the geographical considerations when dealing with weather patterns here (or anywhere else in the world for that matter - but especially in a mountainous country).

As a professional in the mass media, I do know how to check and cross reference information. I guess I shouldn't hold others up to the same standard, but it is disgraceful when people aren't intelligent enough to do the very basic level of fact checking - or they cherry picks facts. How embarrassing. I wrote about that here: Critical and Analytical Thinking are Lost Arts Amongst Many of Today's Adult Population

Now, let me blow this stupid argument out of the water. Here is the claim of this reader that, "I just took a quick look at the forecast for Fukushima, here: http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Fukushima/forecasts/latest It shows today's wind blowing SSW all day --i.e., straight towards Tokyo."

Refer to this map: http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/fukushima/forecasts/latest

CLICK ON IMAGE TO SEE LARGER VIEW

My God! He's right! If we are to extrapolate, that wind is also blowing straight for Manila, Brunei, and Adelaide Australia! We're doomed! Head for the life rafts! Every man for himself! 

As you can see, "S" is referring to the wind direction in Fukushima, indeed blowing south, all the while being ignorant of Japan's geography and distance between Fukushima and Tokyo.

Now, let's show his how he doesn't have the faintest idea as to what he is talking about. From the very same weather service. Refer to this map: http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/tokyo/forecasts/latest

CLICK ON IMAGE TO SEE LARGER VIEW

Well, look at that! The winds are blowing from the south to the north in Tokyo! How could this be? How could the wind be blowing south in Fukushima but blowing north in Tokyo!? 

Well, like I said, this is a mountainous country and geography plays a big part. This reader  cherry picked his data so that it shows winds blowing south IN FUKUSHIMA today, Saturday June 11, 2011 - (while conveniently forgetting to check Tokyo). Fukushima is on the other side of a huge mountain range and 230 + kilometers from Tokyo... Yet, in the bottom chart, from his very own sources, it shows the wind blowing from the south towards the north away from Tokyo.

Just how do we justify this discrepancy? Could it be geography as I showed in my previous post? Seems like the only plausible explanation. Either that or weather gremlins!

"There's no place like home. There's no place like home! 

Oh Auntie Em!"

Also, let's examine further... What about the area just north of Tokyo, Chiba Japan? Well,  sorry about that one too: Refer to this: http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Chiba/forecasts/latest

CLICK ON IMAGE TO SEE LARGER VIEW

Wow! Astounding. The winds are blowing north or, later, from the west (as they always do) away from Tokyo! Who'd a thunk it?

Do I need to alert the weather service? Or does dear reader and Arnie Gundersen need to get an education on Japan's geography and weather? 

As I have said numerous times, Japan's prevailing winds blow from the south or the east. For a few months in winter, they blow from the north east. There might be times when, due to terrain, in small areas, winds blow different directions (a walk in a windy hallway in any city in the world can demonstrate that), but these winds are caused and controlled by geography.

Winds do not blow from Fukushima to Tokyo over the biggest and widest and highest mountain range in Japan.

May I now start enjoying my weekend? 

I already started laughing at least five minutes ago.  

Wind Patterns & Rainy Season in Japan

More comments from the peanut gallery about Japan and Fukushima. In my post:

Always Question Motives of What People Say: Arnie Gunderson

I slammed a guy named Gundersen and raked him across the coals for saying idiotic things about winds blowing radiation towards Tokyo:


"I have said it's worse than Chernobyl and I’ll stand by that. There was an enormous amount of radiation given out in the first two to three weeks of the event. And add the wind blowing in-land. It could very well have brought the nation of Japan to its knees. I mean, there is so much contamination that luckily wound up in the Pacific Ocean as compared to across the nation of Japan - it could have cut Japan in half. But now the winds have turned, so they are heading to the south toward Tokyo..."


This is patently false. The winds are not turning south. It is rainy season and monsoon season in Japan. This season has come to this sub-tropical area for millions of years this time of year. The winds do not blow from the north. They never have. They haven't done that since the beginning of time. They won't soon do that, either, in spite of how confused Arnie Gundersen and his fans are. Facts are facts.


Here is a Weather 101 lesson for you folks about monsoons:



 Monsoons are an annually recurring weather phenomenon, triggered by the earth’s tilt in relation to the sun. Although they return every year, it is still impossible to tell the timing, duration, and quantity of rain each season, a fact that leaves impacted areas without accurate storm information. Monsoons are set by land and sea temperature differences. Land reflects the sun’s rays, heating air over land more rapidly. Water is able to absorb a lot of heat without itself changing temperature much, so air over water stays relatively cooler.


    This fact is prevalent in Asia because the northern hemisphere has so much more land than the southern hemisphere, which is mostly ocean. During the summer, the earth is tilted at such an angle that the sun’s rays shine more directly on the northern hemisphere. The heat is absorbed by the land masses, warming the air above it. The hot air rises, and cooler ocean air rushes inland from the southern hemisphere to replace it. (emphasis mine) As it moves, it carries moisture with it, releasing it over land as the summer monsoon (also known as southwest monsoon). The cycle continues as the cooling air creates precipitation and releases more energy. This energy then heats the air, which rises and flows back to the sea, cools, descends, and rushes back to land to replace more warm, rising air. This monsoon is centered over continental Asia.


So, unless the sun suddenly decides to change its position, or the world tuns upside down, this will always be monsoon and rainy season in Japan and, as such, the rains and weather patterns will come from the south.


Even with these facts some people still write foolish comments on this blog that are not verified by data, science or facts on the ground:

Anonymous wrote: 

"I was just looking at the Tokyo weather report at weather-forecast.com. A couple of the wind balls are pointing southwest, from Fukushima to Tokyo. Whether 'prevailing' is an applicable word or not, it appears likely that sooner or later winds from Fukushima will pass over Tokyo. As for me, I have no expertise at all and my motives are pure evil. That said, a couple of the wind balls are pointing southwest."

"A couple of wind balls!?" "Sooner or later winds will from Fukushima will pass over Tokyo!?" How very scientific (and hilarious). Do you have any idea how far Tokyo is from Fukushima? 
Do you know that, besides running the length of the Japanese islands, one of the highest and largest plateau of the Japanese Alps runs between Tokyo and where Fukushima lies? I'm sure that there are "wind balls." But, like with most weather patterns, mountainous terrain will alter them.


Do you know that, if you stood outside continuously sooner or later you are going to be hit by lightening or a meteorite too, my friend? If I keep buying lottery tickets, sooner or later I will win.

Here is a map from Yahoo! Japan Weather that was taken in the last ten minutes. I don't care about your "wind balls," the wind from Fukushima is NOT blowing over Tokyo and they never will. From: http://weather.yahoo.co.jp/weather/wind/ 

CLICK ON IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW

Red line denotes the prevailing wind. Small arrows show, er, 

"wind balls"... You can see they do not pass the Japan Alps. 

Black line showing Japan Alps. Just north of black line, 

"F" orange arrows and circle denotes Fukushima nuclear power plant. 

Tokyo is black dot. You can see the 

winds arrows are blowing, as always, north.

This next map should put this "winds are blowing south towards Tokyo" lunacy to rest (I can hope, can't I?)

Red arrows denotes part of northern side of Japan Alps. Yellow relief shows highest mountainous regions. Red dot is Fukushima nuclear power plant. As you can see, Fukushima is on the opposite side of Tokyo from one of the largest mountainous plateaus on the entire Japanese archipelago. Also, in spite of what all these maps say, the area marked as "Tokyo" is not Tokyo. I have put a yellow dot where Tokyo really is and marked it with an arrow. Someone send this along to Gundersen... Besides meteorology, he needs a lesson in geography too.

Class is now dismissed. Gundersen and the rest of his failure students stay after school and write 500 hundred times on the blackboard, "For millions of years, winds have never blown from the north-east in Japan - regardless of the season - they never have and never will. "

Want to read more comedy from this Gundersen guy? Read this and click on the link:

Arnold Gunderson, a 39-year veteran of the nuclear industry, stated: “I absolutely disagree with the scientists who say that Fukushima’s not going to hurt anyone. The numbers I’ve seen, from reputable scientists, are that Fukushima is going to kill 200,000 from increased cancers over the next 50 years.”

http://gramercyimages.com/blog1/2011/04/25/fukushima-radiation-a-soft-kill-operation/

As my friend, Andrew Woolner of "JP Quake Info Wall of Shame" says:

I love how he (Gundersen) talks about "reputable scientists" but never names them. Pretty much everyone in the anti-nuclear scene subscribes to the now discredited idea of "internal emitters" and the idea that heavy particles get stuck in one place in the body and cause a lot of damage to one area.

That link, by the way is hilarious. Yeah, watch out for the "globalists" and their "soft-kill" operation...